Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Once the War Begins, How Do We Stop It


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28 August 2013

Once the War Begins, How Do We Stop It???

A key lesson of history is that it is far easier to start wars, especially major ones, than to stop them.  At the beginning of the Great War (what we now call World War I), no one expected it to go on for more than a few months, at the longest.  We learned that once the Tsar of Russia mobilized his army, and early mobilization of his far flung army was vital, then the German High Command, and the Austria-Hungarian High Command felt that they had to mobilize.  Which, of course, led the French and British to rush an emergency mobilization into place.  To stop that mobilization, would have thrown such a 'monkey wrench' into the very detailed mobilization plans that it would have exposed the nation suspending its mobilization, to a potential quick defeat.  So, everyone mobilized and from that point in time the horror and destruction of Europe and much of the world was locked in.
Once America, the United Kingdom and France begin their assault upon Syria, no doubt with the assistance of Israel, Turkey and the Gulf Cooperative Council (GCC) states, it will lock in what I am calling the Great Holocaust of the Human Race...a General Middle East War...World War III...Armageddon!  The Syrians have rode out at least one tactical nuclear strike (early May) and perhaps as many as four or five such strikes, plus a massive chemical attack on a Syrian Army unit a few weeks ago, without 'taking the bait' and responding.  But  both Iran and Syria have made it very clear (with the full support of both Russia and China), that an American and allied military attack is 'crossing the red line' and will NOT be tolerated.  And of course, that is whole point of the False Flag chemical attack and the US/UK/French bombing of Syria.  The West has finally racketed up the level of violence to the point that it can no longer be ignored as a reasonable strategic choice.  This is the beginning of a regime killing operation, regardless of the words coming out of Obama's mouth to the contrary.  

The Syrians and their Iranian and Hezbollah allies know that this is a fight to the death for all of them.  That they will either win this battle or be destroyed in it.  They also know that 'the clock is ticking' on the use of their strategic military assets.  That SAS and USMC long-range recon troops, and others, are in-country now to ID hidden Syrian missiles and other key hardware.  That they have to 'use it or lose it' within a relatively short time ... days at best.  This will be a major driver in the escalation/counter-escalation scenarios in the first day/days of the war.

So what happens when they hit the British Sovereign base in Cyprus with a punishing missile attack, and the US Air Base in Turkey and multiple Israeli high value targets?  What happens when Iran announces that the Straight of Hormuz is closed?  What happens when the Israels cross the Lebanese and Syrian frontiers?  What happens when several US warships are sunk with great loss of life?  

What happens when things really begin to get out of hand ... which could be Day 2 or Day 3 or so of the war???  When nuclear weapons are clearly being used?  What happens when chemical and radiological weapons are used in return?  Does the line continue to be crossed in ever expanding worse levels of a nightmare right out of Hell?  What happens when Israel sees itself in risk of total destruction ... or Iran???  Does Israel use the Samson Option?  Does Iran use its doomsday advanced biological warfare option?

The trouble is, 21st Century warfare and the massive deaths from WMD and the short timelines involved tend to compel a rapid and beyond horrific cycle of response  and counter-response and counter-counter-response.  The central national command authority may be so degraded as to be incapable of stopping the madness, once it has quickly reached a certain point.  What is that point?  We simply do not know because no one has ever used these levels of death dealing technologies in combat before.  

There is a line in the old movie 'Wargames', where the 'thinking computer' that is about to blow up the entire world finally realizes that "the only winning move is not to play".  Sadly Colin Powell's advice that America needs to "back away from Syria" seems to have fallen on deaf ears.  We will soon be trapped in events that might be described as Hellish and then it will be too late.

Tim Earl of Stirling   

News Blog EUROPE             

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

If Damascus gets nuked, then we know we are witnessing the Armaggeddon. The Bible states it with no uncertainty: Behold,
Damascus will cease to be a city and will
become a heap of ruins.