Friday, January 6, 2012

Lord Stirling's News Blog EUROPE

Holy Shroud of Turin

Powerful prayer to St. Michael the Archangel - video ~ link

AVE MARIA - by Helene Fischer - video ~ link
AVE MARIA by Katherine Jenkins - video ~ link 
AVE MARIA by Mirusia Louwerse - video ~ link
Orthodox Cherubim Hymn - video ~ link 

Lord Stirling's news blog EUROPE

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The Earl of Stirling has an ancient Scottish barony title for sale at UK 60,000 Pounds ~ link


Links of importance:

Latest Satellite Surface Current Forecast for North Atlantic - Loop Current - Gulf Stream ~ link

Latest Satellite Sea Surface Temperature for North Atlantic - Loop Current - Gulf Stream ~ link    

Current status of the Gulf Stream ~ link

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True Believer Album by Jeff DeVillez (iTunes) ~ link

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Red = Very high importance and/or danger; if yellow or black lettering or black background is used, extreme importance and/or danger, if Lime Green lettering is used with red or black background it means 'oh shit'.
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Thousands of US troops begin landing in Israel - Major unannounced long-term deployment ~ link ~ Sounds like a 'Eve of War' event to me.  Iran has moved the date of the General Middle East War forward, but the Pentagon will not 'bite' on the Iranian 'bait' until it has all the top-end high tech anti-missile technology and troops in place.  War is now very close!   Stirling    

Thousands of US troops began descending on Israel this week. Senior US military sources told debkafile Friday, Jan. 6 that many would be staying up to the end of the year as part of the US-IDF deployment in readiness for a military engagement with Iran and its possible escalation into a regional conflict. They will be joined by a US aircraft carrier. The warplanes on its decks will fly missions with Israeli Air Force jets. The 9,000 US servicemen gathering in Israel in the coming weeks are mostly airmen, missile interceptor teams, marines, seamen, technicians and intelligence officers.

Top Three Central Banks account for up to 25% of Developed World GDP ~ linkFor anyone who still hasn't grasped the magnitude of the central planning intervention over the past four years, the following two charts should explain it all rather effectively. As the bottom chart shows, currently the central banks of the top three developed world entities: the Eurozone, the US and Japan have balance sheets that amount to roughly $8 trillion. This is more than double the combined total notional in 2007. More importantly, these banks assets (and by implication liabilities, as virtually none of them have any notable capital or equity) combined represent a whopping 25% of their host GDP, which just so happen are virtually all the countries that form the Developed world (with the exception of the UK). Which allows us to conclude several things. First, the rapid expansion in balance sheets was conducted primarily to monetize various assets, in the process lifting stock markets, but just as importantly, to find a natural buyer of sovereign paper (in the case of the Fed) and/or guarantee and backstop the existence of banks which could then in turn purchase sovereign debt on their own balance sheet (monetization once removed coupled with outright sterilized asset purchases as is the case of the ECB). And in this day and age of failed economic experiments when a dollar of debt buys just less than a dollar of GDP (there is a reason why the 100% debt/GDP barrier is so informative), it also means that central banks now implicitly account for up to 25% of developed world GDP!

What does this mean? It means that nearly $8 trillion in world economic growth is artificial and exists only courtesy of central bank intervention - if one is looking for the reason why there is no mean reversion to a more stable period of time, there's your answer. It also means that central banks will never unwind their "assets", either actively, or passively, by letting them mature, as doing so would effectively mean an accelerated return to a non pro forma status quo, one in which global GDP suddenly finds itself $8 trillion less. It also means that in this age of ongoing consumer and corporate deleveraging, central banks will have no choice but to continue monetizing not to generate incremental growth, but to offset debt destruction elsewhere. And of course, in order to sustain global GDP growth of ~3%, they will have to print even more, in other words, accrue more liabilities (excess reserves) which of course would be funded by monetizing even more paper issuance (which Congress would be delighted to oblige with). Which is why we find the announcement by the Fed that it will notify in advance what the Fed Funds rate will be, to be beyond humorous: after all in an environment of active monetization, the only possible interest rate is zero (although the ECB tried a brief experiment otherwise, when it held higher rates than 1% to combat inflation even as it tried, unsuccessfully, to create a debt monetizing off balance sheet vehicle- the EFSF and the ESM).

Arab League's Syria mission slammed from all sides - with video ~ link ~ Over 500 Syrian anti-regime protesters were released on Thursday as Damascus makes moves to comply with the Arab League’s peace plan. But while the League’s observer mission is to file its first report, pressure on the monitors is increasing.

Meanwhile, the Free Syrian Army has called on the Arab League to withdraw its mission from the country over its "failure" to halt the violence, echoing demands from opposition groups and the Arab Parliament, an independent advisory body to the Arab League. 

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