Saturday, July 17, 2010

What is Really Happening in the Gulf of Mexico

What Is Really Happening In The Gulf Of Mexico

We have been treated to a real 'roller coaster' of a 'ride' with the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Disaster. We have been told that the explosion and sinking of the BP Deepwater Horizon was an unavoidable accident, we have also been told that the event was not unavoidable but was the result of greed and ignoring safety procedures. We have been told that the event was planned by the global banking cartel that controls BP as a part of their strategy to bring about their New World Order from the chaos of this event and the developing global depression and perhaps a coming global war or Middle East war, we have also been told that while the event was not planned it is being used for these ends, and we have been told that there was nothing mysterious or evil about the accident. There have been claims and counter-claims of a few thousand gallons per day to upwards of five million gallons of crude oil and natural gas escaping per day. We have been told that the PSI (pounds per square inch) pressure at the wellhead is anywhere from a few thousand PSI to over 100,000 PSI. We have been told that the oil and natural gas is not leaking from the seabed and that it is leaking in several places from the seabed. We have been told that the spill will be contained and that it is out of control. We have been told that the gases associated with the oil disaster are not a health problem and that they are a grave problem and have caused hundreds or even thousands to receive medical treatment. We have been told that BP will pay all costs and is in fact doing so on a on-going basis and we have been told that BP is not even remotely doing so. We have been told that the only effective way to stop the gusher of oil and natural gas is to use a carefully sized and placed nuclear device (as the Russians did five times with success) and we have been told that to use a nuke was totally crazy. We have been told that the oil will reach all the world's oceans within 18 months and within a two to a few years will kill the life chain in the oceans of the world and thereby destroy the process that regenerates 80% of the planet's oxygen, and we have been told that the "spill" is not a big deal at all. We have been told that the chemicals being sprayed in the millions of gallons on the oil are highly deadly and are increasing the damage and overall danger from the disaster, and we have been told that the dispersants are not a danger but necessary. We have been told that the well has been capped and the oil flow has stopped, and we have been told that this is bogus, that the oil is still flowing from multiple seabed locations.

So what is really happening in the Gulf of Mexico?

I am not always right in my estimates of what is happening, but I do try to tell the truth as much as I can ascertain what the truth really is. I have carried a very large collection of articles on my news blog since this event started, on this disaster. What I will attempt to do in this article is bring together the best information, on this on-going disaster, that I can from the past three months. To put together what I call a mosaic of data, to allow a reasonable analysis of what really is happening and may happen in the future.


The US Government and BP have lied to the public from day one and continue to do so today. In many ways this is similar to the 9/11 False Flag event ~ link

As I previously pointed out, the Gulf oil spill is very similar to 9/11, because - in both cases - the responders helping with rescue and clean up were getting sick ... but were told they don't need any safety gear. And see this.

In addition, the government is keeping scientists away from "ground zero" of the oil spill and - for that reason - scientists cannot accurately measure the size of the oil spill.

BP has also tried to cover up its blunders by lowballing spill estimates, keeping reporters out of areas hardest hit by the oil (and see this, this, this and this) and threatening to arrest them if they try to take pictures (and see this), hiding dead birds and other sealife, and using dispersants to hide the amount of spilled oil (the dispersants are only worsening the damage caused by the spill).

The government is complicit in all of these cover-ups. Indeed, the Obama administration has made it a felony to get near enough to oiled wildlife and beaches to film them.

Did BP have advanced knowledge that something dangerous was about to happen to/on the BP Deepwater Horizon drill rig? ~ link

Hours before the Deepwater Horizon explosion, Schlumberger engineers detected an increase in gas pressures as BP sank a bore to an unprecedented depth of 35,055 feet below sea level. It is clear that their warnings about an impending disaster were ignored by BP supervisors and the evidence of BP’s criminal malfeasance sits in a secured room at Schlumberger’s offices in Tulsa.


The current operations are a PR stunt by the Obama Administration and BP and involve efforts by BP to lower the fine that they have to pay under Federal law for oil discharged into the ocean ~ link

I need to include here that I think this "test" is probably a good political and public relations bet for both the Obama administration and BP. It's really not a test at all and has no chance of actually testing anything about the well, except their ability to shut it in with no surface leaks. They want to shut in the well and get it off the nightly news. They want that so badly they're willing to risk anything for it. That's both BP and Our Government. They shut in the well and Thad Allen is a hero. They fail and he's no more of a moron than he has been for the last three months. If they succeed in shutting it in or not, any damage they've done in the "test" that makes the kill operation more difficult, or even impossible, will be a matter of opinion. This bet is against the citizens of the United States of America being smart enough to figure any of this out. It's not a bet on actual physical outcomes. It has nothing at all to do with what's the best plan for stopping this disaster.

Politics. Public Relations.

Expert suspects BP has ulterior motive behind oil well cap ~ link

Oil industry expert Bob Cavnar isn't buying the official story. He told MSNBC's Keith Olbermann on Wednesday that the repeated missteps cast doubt on BP's explanation for why the cap was necessary in the first place.

"I don't understand this whole operation," Cavnar stated. "Sunday was the first time I heard the words 'well integrity test.' There's never been any discussion about this in their public disclosure or in anything else that I've seen. ... So I'm completely confused as to why they're taking this risk of damaging the well further. ... They didn't have all these steps worked out."

"They shouldn't be doing this at all," he suggested. "They should be continuing with the relief well to get this thing killed."

Cavnar believes that BP's true goal is to make it harder to measure the flow of oil from the damaged well, because under the Clean Water Act, it will be liable for civil penalties of up to $4300 for every barrel spilled.

"While they have every incentive to get the well killed, BP also has every incentive to not capture 100% of the well flow until they do," Cavnar wrote last week at Huffington Post. "As soon as they do capture all the flow, then a real, measurable number will be in front of the public, and that's the last thing BP wants, since that number will then be used to extrapolate environmental damage, hence per barrel fines that will likely run to the tens of billions anyway."

"The whole [original] reason for this cap was to allow two more outlets to produce to four ships so they could capture between sixty and eighty thousand barrels a day," Cavnar told Olbermann "This whole business of shutting in -- and shutting down the relief well -- just doesn't make any sense to me at this point. ... My guess is that they're hoping to be able to shut down at least some of the production from the well so once they open it back up to the surface ... it will be producing at a rate less than what it was 'open flow.' So it'll be harder to measure what the total flow was from the well when it was completely uncontrolled."

BP had the technology to measure the oil gushing into the Gulf two years ago ~ link

Congressman Markey - who chairs the select committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming and the Energy and Environment subcommittee - alleges:

What’s clear is that BP has had an interest in low-balling the size of their accident, since every barrel spilled increases how much they could be fined by the government.
Markey and many others point to the fact that BP's fines under the Clean Water Act are based on how many barrels of oil have spilled.

It is therefore not very surprising that BP is pretending that it is difficult to measure the amount of oil spilling into the Gulf.

But a commenter at the Oil Drum points out that BP had the technology to accurately measure the amount of oil spilling into the Gulf - without damaging any equipment - 2 years ago (edited for readability):

Would it surprise anyone to know that BP had already developed the technology to accurately measure troublesome oil and gas flow mixtures at the well head two years ago? It can be done remotely and continuously, at up to 10,000 feet, with a clamp-on, calibration free, sonar flow meter, or that the company that sells and installs them is presenting at petroleum conventions in Calgary and Newfoundland this summer?

The reason BP does not want the true flow known, is that it would require them to pay the "legitimate" fines and royalties they owe on what is extracted, regardless of whether it is ever recovered. As of mid-June their violations of the Clean Water Act alone are around $10B.

The reason no other oil driller wants it known, is that they may own the next blowout and will also want to conceal their true obligations.

Why are the well pressure tests showing such low pressure? ~ link

There are actually at least four potential explanations for the low pressure readings:
(1) There are substantial leaks in the well;

(2) There is leakage in the sands deep under the seafloor. Oil industry professionals posting at the Oil Drum hypothesize:

What this could indicate is that there is a possibility of crossflow at the bottom of the well. What this means that the oil and gas that are flowing out of the reservoir into the bottom of the well, are, under the pressure in the well, now flowing into a higher reservoir of rock, now that they can't get out of the well. Depending on where that re-injection flow is, this may, or may not, suggest that the casing has lost integrity. This is a topic that has been covered in the comments at The Oil Drum, where fdoleza - "a petroleum engineering consultant retired from a major multi-national oil company" - has noted:

... I believe the flow will be coming out of the bottom sand and going into the upper sand. It would not be a leak, but it would tell them why their pressure data ain't a classical surface buildup. And I sure hope they're modeling temperatures and so on, because this is a very interesting case. They don't have downhole gauges, so they'll have to take the way the oil cools down as it sits to get a better idea of the way things are moving down below.

If there are questions whether there is still flow in the formation or from the original formation into surrounding rock, then it is possible that the relief well (RW) is close enough to the original well (WW) that putting a set of very sensitive microphones down the RW might allow some triangulation to estimate where such a flow might be occurring. It might make it easier that the well hasn’t been finally cased yet. But the test has 2 days to run, and will be evaluated every 6 hours. With time some of these questions may be answered as the test continues. (If there is no flow anywhere, after a while all the readings should become quite stable).

(3) A hypothesis proposed by Roger N. Anderson - professor of marine geology and geophysics at Columbia University - that the pressure could be rising slowly not because of a leak, but because of some kind of blockage in the well: "If it's rising slowly, that means the pipe's integrity's still there. It's just getting around obstacles"

or

(4) The reservoir has been depleted more than engineers anticipated (although many experts have said that the reservoir is much bigger than BP has forecast; in any event, there are factors other than size which determine pressure. For example, blowouts can reduce pressure pretty quickly in some reservoirs)
Differences between the wellhead PSI and the PSI of the deep prospect ~ link

Most
of the leaks and seeps that have appeared since April 20th are the result of the venting of the enormous pressures of this very deep, high compression well. Various experts in the Oil & Gas Exploration and Drilling Industry have loosely speculated this pressure to be as high as 50,000 to 60,000 psi and higher very deep in the prospect with ranges of 8,000 to 12,000 psi within the current well system, which would explain much of the erratic behavior of this unprecedented gusher. It has functioned as a humongous sandblaster of sorts, which will therefore make it difficult to even keep a cap on it for any extended period of time. When you drill through the earth’s crust and into the mantle at depths of 20,000 to 35000 feet, the Russians have consistently encountered pressures far exceeding those that exist in more shallow prospects. They also understand that such pressures demand a proportionate upgrade in technology and equipment (which did not happen with the Deepwater Horizon), if catastrophic blowouts are to be avoided.

There are significant amounts of oil and natural gas coming up from cracks in the sea floor near the wellhead ~ link


And what the hell is the mainstream press doing not asking about the clear evidence of oil or gas spewing out under pressure from cracks in the seafloor around the base of the BOP? (See the image of oil spewing from the sea floor here.)

I made a call to the media office of the Unified Command, the office set up to respond to public and media inquiries about the disaster, which is supposedly composed of people from the US Coast Guard, other federal agencies, and BP. When I mentioned the videos taken by BP’s own remote operating vehicles (ROVs) of the oil and/or gas spewing from cracks in the sea floor, I was told I had to call the press office in Houston, “because you’re asking us a question about the sub-surface well.”

But here’s the thing. The press office in Houston is not run by the Unified Command. The people at the office there answer the phone with the phrase: “BP Press.” They do this because they are BP employees, and the office is in BP headquarters.

This means if you want to know anything about the structural integrity of the well below the BOP, you have to get that information from BP, not from the government. That’s the same BP that told government regulators that they could handle any emergency. The same BP that assured us when the well blew that the spill was just leaking 1000 barrels of oil a day--a figure that appears to have been knowingly understated by a factor of 50 to 100.

Now, when I called BP I got a PR guy with a Brit accent named Toby Odone, who claimed he was “not aware of any oil leaking around the well itself.”

He also said, “We’re pretty certain that there is no oil leaking around the well that shouldn’t be there.”

How then to explain their own ROV videos, showing exactly that? Odone assured me he’d “get back” with an answer. So far, no answer.

There are many leaks, seeps, cracks and fissures in a growing area around the wellhead ~ link

Back to the methane issue and the volumes of gas that are currently pouring into the Gulf by way of the gushing well, as well as the many leaks and seeps, cracks and fissures, which have provided entry into the water from a growing area around the wellhead. Some who are privy to authoritative info have pointed directly to a large gash, as well as other smaller gashes, which have opened up in the seafloor throughout the area since the wellhead first blew. Clearly, the topography of the Gulf seafloor has experienced some major changes in the wake of the sinking of the mammoth Deepwater Horizon oil and gas platform. Many revelations have emerged about what really goes on in the process of drilling, which all point directly to a much more conducive environment being created for methane releases from different sources and mechanisms.

Corexit is a very deadly chemical that is being applied in massive amounts to the oil in the Gulf ~ video link ~ link ~

As I have previously noted, Corexit is toxic, is less effective than other dispersants, and is actually worsening the damage caused by the oil spill.

Now, two toxicologists are saying that Corexit is much more harmful to human health and marine life than we've been told.

Specifically Gulf toxicologist Dr. Susan Shaw - Founder and Director of the Marine Environmental Research Institute - dove into the oil spill to examine the chemicals present.

Dr. Shaw told CNN:

If I can tell you what happens — because I was in the oil — to people…

Shrimpers throwing their nets into water… [then] water from the nets splashed on his skin. …

[He experienced a] headache that lasted 3 weeks… heart palpitations… muscle spasms… bleeding from the rectum…

And that’s what that Corexit does, it ruptures red blood cells, causes internal bleeding, and liver and kidney damage. …

This stuff is so toxic combined… not the oil or dispersants alone. …

Very, very toxic and goes right through skin.

***

The reason this is so toxic is because of these solvents [from dispersant] that penetrate the skin of anything that’s going through the dispersed oil takes the oil into the cellstakes the oil into the organs… and this stuff is toxic to every organ system in the body. …

Massive amounts of dispersants have been used in the Gulf ~ link ~ Up to 42 million gallons.

Christopher Reddy, an associate scientist of marine chemistry and geochemistry at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, said the use of surface dispersants is extremely typical and well understood to be safe, but some concern remains about their use in the sea’s depths. …

Reddy said he is also concerned about the total amount of dispersants used, which is unprecedented. He noted that 1 million barrels [42 million gallons] of dispersants have been applied to the Gulf of Mexico to fight this spill, more than the amount of oil spilled in any single accident prior to the BP disaster.

Reilly also said the dispersants’ unknown effect on fisheries is troublesome. “You know a lot of fishermen have very strong reservations about dispersants, that it hides the oil under the surface and makes it hard for the fish to avoid it,” Reilly said. “That’s what we found in Prince William Sound” after the 1989 Exxon Valdez tanker spill in Alaska, during Reilly’s time as EPA chief.

Risk of Global Climate Change By BP Oil Spill by Gianiuigi Zangari, Ph.D. ~ Frascati National Laboratories (LNF) - National Institute of Nuclear Physics (INFN)

Abstract: BP Oil Spill may cause an irreparable damage to the Gulf Stream global climate thermoregulation activity. ~ link

The Gulf Stream imprtance in the global climate themoregulation processes is well assessed. The lastest real time satellite (Jason, Topex/Poseidon, Geosat Follow-On, ERS-2, Envisat) data maps of May-June 2010 processed by CCAR (Dolorado Center for Astrodynamics Research), checked at Frascati Laboratories by the means of the SHT congruent calculus and compared with past years data, show for the first time a direct evidence of the rapid breakign of the Loop Current, a warm ocean current, crucial part of the Gulf Stream. As displayed byoth by the sea surface maps and the sea surface height maps, the Loop Current broke down for the first time around May 18th and generated a clock wise eddy, which is still active. As of today the situation has deteriorated up to the point in which the eddy has detached itself completely from the main stream therefore destroying completely the Loop Current.

Since comparative analysis with past satellite data until May 2010 didn't show relevant anomalies, it might be therefore plausible to correlate the breaking of the Loop Current with the biochemical and physical action of the BP Oil Spill on the Gulf Stream.

It is reasonable to foresee the threat that the breaking of a crucial warm stream as the Loop Current may generate a chain reaction of unpredictable critical phenomena and instabilities due to strong non linearities which may have serious consequences on the dynamics of the Gulf Stream thermoregulation activity of the Global Climate.

The below maps indicate that the patterns have continued in more or less the same pattern that we saw over one month ago (see above link to the Dr. Zangari's Abstract). While the Loop Current does change from time to time and has eddies, what we are now seeing is NOT consistent with past patterns going back many years.

http://argo.colorado.edu/~realtime/gifs_tmp/gom_ssh/gmt.8451.gif

http://argo.colorado.edu/~realtime/gifs_tmp/gom_vel/gmt.8521.gif

http://argo.colorado.edu/~realtime/gifs_tmp/global_ssh/gmt.8737.gif

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