Saturday, December 27, 2008

The Dangers of a India-Pakistan War

War tensions are being ratcheted up in the Indian subcontinent, between India and Pakistan. They have fought three major wars since what was once called India in the British Empire obtained its freedom and India and Pakistan split apart. There is great distrust and hate between Hindu India and Islamic Pakistan. The real danger comes from the fact that both are now nuclear armed neighboring states with very short warning times. It has been estimated that the leadership of both India and Pakistan would have as short as two minutes warning once enemy nuclear armed missiles are spotted and confirmed, before first impacts/detonations . That tends to put things on a 'hair trigger'. A surprise nuclear attack would be aimed at dramatically reducing the opposing state's ability to strike back with weapons of mass destruction giving the nation striking first a strong advantage. The response to this is to fire at first warning a full counter battery nuclear attack.

A war could easily escalate from a Indian 'limited non-nuclear surgical strike' into a all out nuclear war targeting not only enemy military sites but also enemy population centers.

A review of Indian and Pakistani weapons of mass destruction and delivery systems shows just how scary the Indian subcontinent is at this present time.

Pakistan's nuclear weapon program dates back to at least 1974 and is very advanced, although not as advanced as larger and richer India's is. Since 1987 Pakistan's nuclear weapons have been miniaturized to allow delivery by Pakistan's Air Force fighters and by its IRBMs (intermediate range ballistic missiles) and cruise missiles (including ground/air/naval surface/submarine launched versions).

Pakistan uses both highly enriched uranium and plutonium for its nuclear weapons. The Khushab nuclear site has sufficient plutonium production for 40 to 50 warheads a year by itself. This site is coming on line and is a major expansion of Pakistani plutonium reprocessing capabilities; a fact that concerns a number of nations including America, India, and Israel. In 2000, US military intelligence reportedly estimated Pakistani nuclear weapons at approximately 100 in number. A number of 200 in late 2008/early 2009 is very probable.

The sixth Pakistani nuclear test (May 30, 1998) at Kharan was a successful test of a sophisticated, compact, but powerful bomb designed to be carried by missiles. The Pakistanis are believed to be spiking their plutonium based nuclear weapons with tritium. Only a few grams of tritium can result in an increase of the explosive yield by 300% to 400%.

The Pakistani strategic capable missiles include the following: the Hatf-X (also called Tipu), 4000 km + range (new, unknown number in service); the M-11, 300 km range (new, unknown number in service); the Hatf-VIII (also called Ra'ad), an air launched cruise missile (new, unknown number in service); the Hatf-VII (also called Babur), a naval submarine launched and surface launched and ground launched cruise missile, 700 km range (up to 1,000 in service); the Hatf-VI (also called the Shaheen-II), 2500 km + range (over 200 in service); the Hatf-VA (also called the Ghauri-II), 2400 km + range (over 100 in service); the Hatf-V (Ghauri-I), up to 1500 km range (approximately 300 in service); the Hatf-VI (Shaheen-I), 750 km range (150 or so in service) the Hatf-III (Ghaznavi), 290 km range (100+ in service); Hatf-I and IA, up to 100 km range (over 100 in service).

In addition to nuclear weapons, these missiles can carry advanced biological warheads, chemical warheads, advanced conventional weapons, and high explosive conventional warheads.

The Pakistani Air Force has the following aircraft types capable of delivering nuclear warheads, as well as a full range of NBC/advanced conventional/conventional weapons: The Chinese A-5s, JF-17s (FC-1), J-10s; the French Mirage IIIs and Vs; the American F-16s.

India's first nuclear weapons test occurred on May 18, 1974. Numbers of actual Indian nuclear weapons vary but assembled weapons are thought to be in the low hundreds with India having perhaps 4200 kg of reactor grade plutonium - enough to build 1000 additional nuclear weapons.

The Indian strategic delivery systems are extensive and include land based IRBMs and cruise missiles (with true ICBMs under development), sea based surface and submarine launched cruise missiles and naval air launched weapons from Indian aircraft carriers, and air launched missiles and bombs.

Indian ballistic missiles include: Prithvi I, Army version with 150 km range and in-flight maneuvering capabilities; Prithvi II, Air Force version with 250 km range; Prithvi III Navy version with 350 km range; the Agni missile family (Agni I, II, III, IISL and the coming V ICBM version) with ranges up to 5000 km. The Agni family of missiles have demonstrated an advanced maneuvering warhead (endo-atmospheric evasive maneuvers, terminal guidance reentry vehicles).

Indian cruse missiles include the: Russian 3M-54 Klub, 250-300 km range with subsonic to Mach 2.9 speeds,; the Israeli Popeye, the Russian P-70 Ametist; the very dangerous Russian Moskit (also called Sunburn). Additionally, the Indian Akash air defense SAM can use nuclear warheads.

The Indian Navy is one of the most powerful navies on earth with nuclear submarines, aircraft carriers and a wide assortment of quality surface and subsurface vessels.

India is one of only four nations (including the USA, Russia, and China) still flying long range nuclear strategic bombers with 17 in service including the Tupolev Tu-142 (naval version of the Tu-95 Bear bomber), the Tupolev Tu-22M3 "Backfire", and the II-38. Fighter jets capable of nuclear missions include the advanced Russian Sukhoi Su-30MKI, the Mig-27M, the Mig-29 and Mig-29K (Indian Naval version), the French Dassault Mirage 2000, the French-British Jaguar, and the Indian HAL Tejas.

Global Effects of a regional India-Pakistan War: A nuclear war involving the use of only 50 Hiroshima-sized weapons could cause a "Nuclear Winter" over large areas of North America and Eurasia with catastrophic climatic effects for years. The 'Proceedings of the National Academy of Science' in 2008 published a study that found a war including a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan could create a near-global ozone hole with column ozone losses at over 20% globally, 25-45% at mid-latitudes and 50-70% at northern high latitudes persisting for five years with continuing substantial losses for five additional years.

As the world has kept its attention on several other things lately, like the US Presidential election and transition, the global economic Crash of 2008, Christmas, etc., the old trouble spot of the Indian subcontinent has suddenly gone 'warm' if not 'hot'. If it goes 'hot', the entire planet and all life on our Earth, could be in real trouble.

Stirling

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Let's be clear here that pakistan is a "terrorist state" and never have any illusion that it is going to be any different.We have made a grave blunder by suggesting in the international fora that "Pakistan is also a victim of terror." We should stop interviewing leaders from that country who mouth the same inanities that "you have not produced any proof."Let us not fall into the trap of providing proof to the culprits. More than 100 acts/attempts of terror recorded in the world since 9/11 have had their roots in Pakistan. More than 40% of the prisoners in Guantanamo are Pakistanis.

We should categorically, unambiguously, unequivocally boycott Pakistan in all aspects for a decade or more. Pakistan is the only territory in the world where an army has a whole country under its control. The state policy of Pakistan is terrorism and their single-point programme of existence is to destroy India.

Anonymous said...

No worries, by then, all our problems(real & imaginary) will
be gone.

rotsamuck said...

Whether or not Pak is a terrorist state, or its leader a terrorist manipulator, the US has problems which if not addressed domestically, are going to require a massive amount of diversion, distraction and demonizing. We have pushed nukes as such a bugaboo for the last 40 years, that people accept anything less. Some of the CBW agents out there are more lethal than nukes--and a whole lot cheaper to manufacture, but we still harp on this nuke bugaboo. Our economy is falling apart, more mystery meat and secret sauce financial "instruments" loom destructively on the horizon, with the possibility of bringing an "economic winter" to the nation, if not to the world. While India and Pakistan dance around the nuclear cobra, the US has its own destabilization catalyst brewing in the form of trillions of dollars of exotic investment instruments, which may well destabilize the world economy, generating unrest, riots and urban instability.
While I do not dismiss the danger poses by India and Pakistan, and hope to hell no nut ever gets his or her hands on the trigger, let me remind you that the blessed US is the only nation in the world to have ever acknowledged using nukes.
One poster has said that state terrorism is Pakistan'as single point program--a program which finds fuel in angry young men--and now women in the world's have not nations, places which provide human fuel to the terrorist bonfire. If the crashing American economy flames out, we may well see Americans providing fuel for that bonfire as well.
The powers that be see the handwriting on the wall==and the domestic military uptick is being developed to adress that issue.

Anonymous said...

Who is guilty when all call the other party to be the culprit?
These are the final days of United Babylon the Great.
United States with its former allies have been paid by far too many Viagra- all warlords have their blue pills and other dope paying the price that once was called innocence. USA is now a sleeping beauty walking into being defiled. The money scam behind Capitol and the former project to collect drug money and to whitewash the stashes of money has come to a screaming halt. So many lay hands upon themselves as drugs and blue chips have been dismantled to be a giant scheme to have a whole world to taste the sins of those having sent evilness into this world. This world is truly steered by the forces of hell having assembled stooges to do the dirty and filthy work to assemble the souls in exchange for more money!
It is a law that once evilness has passed the thin line engulfing even the elect ones will it end as it once started. This cycle is about to end- those being in the range of the atom bombs will be blown back in time. It is a known fact that at certain coordinates and at certain heights will the explosions lead into bending time and space. This is what the Upanishads told- in order to save man from extinction had God safeguarded its original intent. Only God can exterminate mankind! The fathers of the atom bomb knew about that effect- they knew far too well the Upanishads! Einstein’s secret kept unified theorem did as a fact prove that effect to be true but the reengineering of ancient technology was the legacy of Germany having now in its ultimate goal sunk USA! The whole business of paperclip was ensuring the supremacy of ancient India. That India is now being brought at the brink of extinction! Many will be blown back into history and from there will they write and tell off that War of Gods that led them from a world now to be destroyed! History has proven this to be true- this timeline will witness the repetition of those events having led them back into the beginning of our this last and so lost civilization. It is a spiritual event that had this civilization to come about- it is a matter of history having destroyed ourselves by calling others the culprit!
The Spirit has moved, we are called to witness history to once again to unfold. Those being blown back into the morning of time are those being caught away-we are to witness the calling away of those living souls who in the morning of our civilisation will build the initial phase of present world! We are to witness that to happen- it has already happened. That is told in all secret and sacred books! This is the trauma of our civilisation- this is what our Elders warned us not to do! This is the price to be paid and bought by those being sent back in time- to rebuild our civilisation somewhere hundreds of years prior to this date!
It is sad to witness this to evolve but once again- we would not be here if these wouldn’t be caught up from this world to start from its scratch!

A. Peasant said...

Oh please. Let's do be clear. Don't forget the pecking order when you pass out the "terrorist" name tags. Pakistan does what the US tells it to do, and the US does what Israel wants.