Sunday, September 30, 2007

How To Survive An Iranian Biowar Attack

Wars and rumors of wars ~ the world is awash with stories and rumors of the coming war with Iran (and Syria according to many). Most published articles take either a pro-war or anti-war position. Generally, when the military aspect of a new Middle Eastern war (Iran/Syria/USA/Israel/etc.) is covered, it is the expected three day bombing campaign against Iranian targets (generally 2,000 or 3,000 targets are mentioned in most articles) that are covered. What is not being given much coverage is the effect from existing Iranian WMD on Israel, Europe, and North America, in event of a all-out war on Iran and its allies.

The United States Air Force is the best air force in history; its ability to project American power is almost beyond belief. No American ground force has been attacked by an enemy air force since the Korean War and that is a long time (I was born during the Korean War and sorry to say I am getting old). There is no doubt that if Brig. Gen. Lawrence Stutzriem, USAF, and his targeting staff at the Pentagon's Project Checkmate, map out 2,000 or 3,000 or even 10,000 Iranian targets for American warplanes (from the USAF and the air arms of the US Navy and USMC) those targets will effectively cease to exist. There is no doubt that the Israeli Air Force is a well equipped and well trained/well motivated force that can bring massive amounts of death and destruction on Israel's enemies. There is also no doubt that in the event that Iran and her allies use WMD (chemical, biological, radiological) that there will be a massive nuclear response that will effectively destroy Iran and Syria.

What is being missed here, with all the talk of Iran developing nuclear weapons or not (depending on one's viewpoint), is that Iran is already a state that possesses WMD. HELLO, ANY WAR WITH IRAN IS HIGHLY APT TO INVOLVE LARGE SCALE DEATHS THROUGHOUT THE WORLD DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE IRANIAN WMD THREAT. Iran has an active biological warfare program and as I outlined in my earlier article, The Real Danger From Iranian WMD, biowar is on a par with all-out nuclear is in fact "the poor man's nuke".

The nature of biowar is that it is a "gift that keeps on giving". Once released, advanced recombination DNA based viral bioweapons will continue to spread and kill and kill ....regardless if Iran and Syria are but a sea of green radioactive glass devoid of all life. With advanced biowar agents, it is not the quantity that counts but the quality. It does not require large amounts of weapons running into the hundreds of thousands or millions or billions of tons of high explosives; nor does it require ICBMs and cruise missiles and $100 million dollar warplanes to deliver the bioweapons. A very small group of human assets, prepositioned with small amounts of easily hidden biowar weapons (submicroscopic viruses), in Europe, Canada, and America can begin the process that will result in the deaths of hundreds of millions or even billions of human beings. When you get right down to it, does it matter if you die from some exotic bioengineered hemorrhagic fever or from radiation poisoning .......dead is still dead. A nation that has lost 2/3 of its population base to biowar, as opposed to one that has lost 2/3 of its population base to nuclear war, is still a broken destroyed nation.

Iranian President Ahmadinejad does not act like a man living in mortal fear of American and Israeli power. He acts like a man, no doubt driven by a political and religious imperative to confront American and Zionist power (he was a key member of the young Iranians that seized the American Embassy so many years ago). He acts like a man who knows that he also possesses weapons of mass destruction, hence his constant theater before the world. If his Iran is effectively destroyed in a massive conventional and/or nuclear attack he can respond in kind to the non-Muslin nations of the world. And that is MAD....mutually assured destruction. Only this is not the Cuban Missile Crisis with a nuclear armed Soviet Union facing a nuclear armed America. This is the Middle East with a clash between Iranian hardliners and neocon hardliners. In the Cuban Missile Crisis cooler heads prevailed ......the scary thing is that this time cooler heads may not prevail. And make no mistake about it, the danger to the entire world is just as great (if not greater) than that in the Cuban Missile Crisis. We are so focused on the "big bangs" of nuclear war that we fail to understand the true nature and real danger to us from biological warfare.

We are on the threshold of an event, World War III as it is likely to be known, that will be so horrendous that people will speak of "before the war" and "after the war".

I do not write about if the neocon agenda is right or wrong, or if the Muslin or Iranian position is right or wrong. I cannot change any of that, nor can I prevent whatever is going to happen in the Middle East and in the global phase thereafter. I can, hopefully, alert some people to the real dangers facing the human race and make a recommendation or two that could save many lives.

Global biowar will not come upon us like global thermonuclear war. It will sneak up on the world with not even a whisper at first to announce its deadly presence. It will likely begin when a massive conventional and/or nuclear strike is made against Iran. While the world's attention is focused on what is happening in the Middle East, a small number of Iranian agents, already positioned in Europe, Canada, America, Australia and elsewhere will take action. It is highly likely that no one will even notice the attack. Simple hidden aerosol devices are apt to be employed to quietly and unobtrusively spray small amounts of genetically engineered viruses in public gatherings, such as in churches and synagogues, in movie theaters, in shopping malls, in restaurants, etc. Those doing the spreading may or may not be vaccinated against the nightmare viruses that they spread (in the Iraq-Iran War tens of thousands of Iranian volunteers flooded the battlefields in human wave attacks that were suicidal in nature...sometimes there were not even enough rifles to go around and the volunteers were told to pick up the guns of their fallen comrades). There is not apt to be one or two diseases spread but dozens of different totally new bioengineered diseases that we humans have no natural defenses against.

Those first infected with the new viruses will become the next generation of delivery systems for the biowar attack. Of course, they will not know it.... at least not at first. The incubation period will likely be 10 to 14 days for the viruses, and the hosts will likely have something that mimics the common cold with some sneezing. Each host will spread the disease to perhaps dozens or even hundreds of others, who in turn will become third stage vectors for the biowar attack. And the process continues. In fact, many war games that involve advanced biological agents end up with the entire nation/world infected.

Even thought there have been great amounts of money spent on universal cures for biowar diseases, the unpredictable nature of new genetic engineering advances (and also natural mutations of any new viruses) are highly likely to preclude any anti-biowar efforts from having total success. In other words, once the genie is out of the bottle all hell is apt to break lose. The only true sure way to stop a bioengineered super killer virus is to allow it to burn itself out. That means containing it and allowing those with the disease to either die off or survive.

Since no government on Earth, and certainly no North American or European governments, are ready for advanced biowar, individuals themselves have to be ready to take steps to live through the biowar attack. This means that upon the first sign of biowar breaking out anywhere, one should stay at home and stop all contact (other than phone/internet) with others. This self-quarantine might have to go on for several months and one has to be prepared to survive on stored food and water and if necessary, to do without public utilities as systems begin to fail from non-maintenance. This self-quarantine has to be absolute if one is to be sure of staying away from the various biological warfare diseases ravishing the world.

Citizens cannot count on their governments to effectively defend them. If you want to live you have to take matters into your own hands. You need to stockpile food and medicine and water and all necessary supplies for all family members and pets for several months. The time to do this is before war breaks out and certainly before the threat of biowar is fully understood by the masses.

Some scary information to keep in mind: the medical community is apt to die off quickly from biowar as they will be exposed early on to persons with the new effectively untreatable fatal diseases; the average city has only 1 1/2 days worth of food if the supply chains cease to function. Do not, under any circumstances allow any government to force you to have a number or mark or RFID chip placed in or on your body. The last book of the Bible, and its warnings of the Mark of the Beast, is not something that one should ignore in the event of biowar. Churches will be closed during a biowar attack, as well all public gatherings, but that should be no barrier to getting closer to God. The growing crisis in the Middle East should make all of us consider our relationship with the Almighty. We lived through the Cuban Missile Crisis but we may not be so lucky this time.


Sunday, September 23, 2007

Friday, September 21, 2007

Putin's Strategy ~ A Romanov Restoration

The world was mystified last week when Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed the Prime Minister and replaced him with the little known Viktor Zubkov instead of the "expected" Sergei Ivanov (current Deputy Prime Minister and "leading candidate" to replace Putin as President in 2008). The Toronto Star newspaper, in an article titled "PUTIN'S MYSTERIOUS MANEUVERS" , asks if the President of Russia has "abandoned the scripted succession , embarking on a new scheme altogether".

The current Russian Constitution forbids a President from more than two successive terms as President. There was no doubt that Putin had the political power to amend the Constitution to change this. He simply decided not to do so and a normal change to the Constitution is not possible in the remaining time before Presidential elections next Spring. The thing is, Putin does not act like a man willing to leave the most powerful office in his nation. There is much speculation that he is appointing the 66 year old financial regulator as Prime Minister with the intention of running him as President as an interim place holder for Putin (with Putin returning to the Presidency in four years) , as he seems to have "no apparent political ambition". Funny, that is similar to what was said of Putin himself, when Yeltsin appointed him Prime Minister and effectively turned over the Presidency itself to him later. Vladimir Putin is well aware that he cannot hold onto the reins of real power, and be sure of maintaining that power, if he leaves office.

So just what is he up to? To understand his strategy we need to look at the man and his long term intentions for his beloved Russia. He is Russian to his very bones; and Russians are very "Russian" and suspicious of all foreigners. Public museums that charge admission in Russia, have two prices, one for foreigners and another for Russians. As someone who had a Russian girlfriend for a while, and got to see a personal side of Russia I can tell you that I have never been in a nation that was so focused on its identify and one that views all non-citizens as suspicious outsiders. To Russians, the world is divided up between Russians and "foreigners".

Putin has made it very clear that in his opinion the brake-up of the Soviet Union was a very great historical tragedy. The twin centers of the Russian soul throughout many hundreds years of its history was Orthodoxy and the Tsars. The Soviet Revolution overthrew the Romanov Dynasty and as much as possible, sought to destroy the ancient Orthodox faith of the Russian people. Vladimir Putin has been a very strong supporter of the Russian Orthodox Church, and any traveling in Russia will show one just how significant the re-flowering of the ancient faith is. The old Imperial Family is well respected in Russia, and the Russian Orthodox Church has made saints out of the last Tsar and his murdered family. However, there is no great demand for an Imperial Restoration. Putin himself is the one most admired in polls of the Russian people.

So why would Vladimir Putin want to bring back the Romanovs, if only in a ceremonial Head of State role? Belarus and the Ukraine are two reasons, as are various other now separated republics of the former Soviet Union. When Yeltsin buried the Soviet Union, the leaders of the various major republics in the old USSR took the opportunities presented to them and took full power for themselves within their republics. It is easy to turn a aquarium into fish soup but very hard to turn that fish soup back into an aquarium. Putin seeks to restore Russia to its proper power and place among nations. One of the central problems in doing this is to get the various former parts of the old Russian Empire/USSR to agree to come back fully into Russia's tent. Even Belarus, the republic closest to Mother Russia has failed to merge itself back into Russia. It has, however, formed a very close union with Russia.

By replacing the current Russian Constitution with one that restores the Romanov Dynasty as Emperors/Tsars Putin can in one action, both continue the restoration of traditional Russian culture and pride AND establish a transnational Empire to gather Russia's former nations together, limitedly at first but more intensively as time goes on. The Russia-Belarus Union could become the reborn Russian Empire with HIH Grand Duchess Maria Vladimorovna as the new Empress over both nations. Of course, she would have limited power and that would be largely dictated by the Russian Head of Government. The Belarus political class would still have their independence ~ more or less, certainly less over time ~ and Russia would have a powerful tool to begin the reuniting of the Russian Empire/USSR, which was broken apart only a few years ago. The Ukraine will be an early target, as well several other former republics. At first the new Empress Maria will simply be a tool for a more in-depth union of Russia and Belarus but the strategy will be to expand the renewed Russian Empire and to expand Russian central governmental influence over the various national parts of the Empire including greater military "cooperation". Russia's new wealth, based on its oil and natural gas holdings, will be utilized to grease the way for putting back together most of the land mass that the Tsars and Soviets ruled.

Look for Vladimir Putin to fill the role of Head of Government in the Kemlin and the new Empress to reign in the old Imperial capitol of St. Petersburg bringing new life to Putin's favorite Russian city (his hometown) and the fantastic Russian showcase Winter Palace, as well as the palaces in Tsarskoe Selo.


Wednesday, September 5, 2007

The Real Danger From Iranian WMD

Will the United States and/or Israel attack Iran? That is the question that is being debated throughout the world. Rather than try to answer that question, as so many others are doing, or condemn or support the Bush Administration and its allies, as again so many others are doing, I would rather point out a serious and grave risk to all human life in the event of a regional war in the Middle East. Any attack on Iran is apt to also include war with Syria and pro-Syrian/pro-Iranian forces in Lebanon as well as military action in Palestine. Additionally, Israel will be attacked from several directions and allied forces in Iraq, and other areas of the Middle East, are apt to come under direct attack.

The driving force behind the NeoCon agenda is the fear, first expressed several years ago at the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, of one or more Middle Eastern states (besides Israel) obtaining nuclear weapons. Israel is a small nation, and hence a small compact target for the horrific effects of nuclear weapons. The debate, begun several years ago at Jaffee, was "do we attack the Islamic states (Iraq/etc. and the non-Arab Iran) now before they obtain nuclear weapons, or wait until they can wipe us off the map before we act".

The problem with the current strategy, with its focus on nuclear arms, is that it is simply too late in human history for this strategy.

It costs approximately US$1 million to kill one person with nuclear weapons-of-mass destruction but only approximately US$1 to kill one person with biological weapons-of-mass destruction. Bioweapons are truly the "poor man's nukes". The Iranians are known to have a biological weapons program and they, and their allies, certainly have the means to deliver biowar agents into the Israeli and European and North American homelands. Bioweapons do not have to be dispersed via missiles or bombs, they are perfect for non-traditional normally non-military delivery systems. Being very small (there are, for example, typically approximately 40 million bacterial cells in every gram of soil), they lend themselves to an enormous variety of non-detectable methodologies for delivery and use in war, both regionally and globally.

The Iranians, along with the Syrians, have what has been described as the largest chemical warfare program on Earth. But even the most persistent chemical agent is gone in a matter of hours (if it is a gas; longer for certain biochemical toxins). Biological weapons are the "gift that keeps on giving" as they replicate themselves and spread throughout the human population.

To begin to understand the truly horrific nature of the biowar threat, one only has to look to history for some "mild" examples. The Black Death bubonic pandemic, believed caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is estimated to have killed between a third and two-thirds of Europe's population after it spread to Europe in 1347 from South-western/Central Asia. The same disease returned to parts of Europe almost every generation through the late 18th Century. The three known variant strains (biovars) of Yersinia pestis are thought to correspond to one of the major pandemics of bubonic plague [Biovar Antiqua ~ the Plague of Justinian; Bovar Medievalis ~ medieval Black Death; Biovar Orientalis ~ the Third Pandemic/China & India beginning in 1855]. Yersinia pestis can cause bubonic plague as well as pnenmonic plague and also septicmic plague.

Yersinia pestis, being a bacteria is massive when compared to a virus, and is easily treated with modern antibiotics. However, the Soviet Union's Biopreparat organization (according to a former Biopreparat microbiologist Valadimir Pesechnik) turned Black Death from a medieval plague into a 20th Century bioweapon. The Yersinia pestis bacteria was exposed to every then-known antibiotic, in a process that any advanced high school or early undergraduate college level biology class student could undertake, and the resulting antibiotic resistant Y. pestis was bred and loaded into a small number of Soviet ICBMs aimed at America. The resistant Y. pestis had also been exposed to various levels of radiation to "radiation harden" the bacteria. The intent was to hit American survivors of a nuclear war with a new and untreatable form of Black Death that itself could survive the effects of nuclear fallout.

As frighting as a totally antibiotic resistant Yersinia pestis bacteria is, it remains "child's play" compared to the more advanced recombination DNA technology used in most biowar programs. This typically involves the combining of viral DNA into new virus, "designer virus". The Soviets, according to Dr. Ken Alibek (aka Dr. Kanatjan Alibekov) years ago engineered a new virus that combined elements of Smallpox and Ebola. With the genetic engineering of viruses those doing the "designing" can engineer into the virus a wide number of different characteristics. For instance, an advanced hemorrhagic fever can be designed to be: airborne (capable of being transmitted via sneezing), with a very small amount of viral material required to infect a human host, with a incubation period of 14 days or longer, with most of the incubation period that is both highly contagious and at best looks like a mild version of the common cold, with the resulting hemorrhagic fever having a mortality of 90% or more.

The same technology can be used to create a large number of different viruses which can all be released on a target population, vastly complicating detection and containment and treatment programs.

There is no nation on Earth that is truly prepared for biowar. The Israelis, while in general well prepared for most military threats, are not ready for biowar. In Europe, many nations (having suffered through two world wars in the 20th Century) have a higher level of preparedness than Canadians or Americans but even the Swiss (the most prepared nation in Europe for war) lack anything that can be called "ready" to meet the biowar danger. Americans have not faced massive military deaths in their homeland since the end of the American Civil War in 1865. However, the US Department of Defense (DOD) has been spending truly vast sums of money on biowar defense counter-measures. There are rumors of drugs that will defeat any biowar threat, and while there are no doubt many advances, the almost unlimited number of new designer viruses and other biowar agents that can be created just about guarantee that counter-measures cannot succeed in all cases. It only takes one successfully deployed super mutant killer virus to effectively destroy a culture/civilization/economy/national population.

The threat of human-to-human transmission of Bird Flu (H5N1) has resulted in an increased awareness of natural biological disease dangers and has increased governmental planning and preparations. However, we are far far from ready for advanced biowar. It is expected that unless governmental bodies are very fast at sounding the alarm and are very effective in posting and enforcing medical precautions, that among the early victims of a biowar attack will be the medical community itself, leaving the remaining population even more lost and at risk. The simple task of notifying and requiring family doctors and their nurses and office staff to wear gowns, gloves and masks, and enforcing such a warning (when no local cases of biowar infections yet exist), as well as hospital staff, is a basic step that is unlikely, under the present conditions and rules, to happen (or happen in time to be effective, which is what counts).

In the event of a biowar outbreak the entire civilian medical community would need to be militarized and detailed arrangements and training have to be in place for this well ahead of time. This simply has not happened and America, Canada and Europe are wildly exposed to massive deaths from biowar based weapons of mass destruction.

One would think that no sane nation or national leaders, even the Islamic extremists leading Iran, would ever use biowar agents in a war. Any use would likely result in the immediate nuking of all of Iran. However, the nightmare that has happened to Iraq has raised the stakes in the Middle East. Iran has seen that in any war with America they are likely to see their national economy, culture, civilization and even the Iranian nation-state itself destroyed. When the "gloves come off" in a regional Middle Eastern war the probability of such a war involving biological weapons-of-mass destruction is very significant, and that is damn dangerous for us all.

Even though I have a number of British (Scottish) titles and several old honorific Canadian offices-of-state, I am an American living in Indiana. I have tried, with the last three Governors of Indiana to encourage the formation of a sizable medical force in the state defense force (in Indiana this is known as the Indiana Guard Reserve), to be ready for biological emergencies without success. Just over half of the states in America have a state defense force that is not a part of the federal military (like the joint state/federal Army and Air National Guard). Some of these states in addition to Army forces, have Air Force elements and in a handful of states even Naval forces. These state defense forces cannot be called up by the President for federal service but can be activated by the state's governor for serious emergencies. Texas has the Texas Medical Rangers (a group of doctors and other medical volunteers from around the state) as a part of its Texas Guard to respond to emergences, but even this excellent force is unprepared for the outbreak of biowar.

America, Canada, Europe, Israel, and the rest of the world had better get ready for the unthinkable nightmare of advanced biowar. Being prepared can make the difference between successfully containing biowar agents before they destroy one's nation, culture, society, economy. Not being prepared ensures a return of the Dark Ages.


Scottish barony title for sale ~ link.