Friday, October 19, 2007

War on Iran = You Die from Biowar

If we were about to launch a massive attack and wage war on nuclear armed Russia and China, there would be mass fear, panic, and widespread knowledge that the END would be upon most of us....that the resulting counter-strike from Russian and Chinese nuclear forces would kill most of us. However, we are rapidly approaching war with Iran, a nation that can deliver the same level of death upon Americans, Canadians, Europeans, etc. that the combined nuclear weapons of Russian and China can deliver. Yet, most people do not understand the real and present grave danger to themselves and their families, neighbors, co-workers, etc. We remain focused on the stock market, the price of oil, the next election, sports, etc., and fully expect to see 2008 and beyond.

We have been conditioned, by seeing films of mushroom clouds and images of nuclear destruction in Japan at the end of WWII, to have some understanding of the horrific effects of a nuclear war. We have NOT been conditioned to understand the effects of Twenty-first Century advanced biological war. The kill numbers are very similar, just with biowar you don't get the "big bangs", the mushroom clouds, the nuclear bombers, the ICBMs, etc. Just sub-microscopic genetically engineered super killer viruses that we have absolutely no defense against, delivered in secret, with a slow horrifying unstoppable migration through the global human population. All the fear of a naturally mutated form of "bird flu" that might kill tens of millions is simply "child's play" compared to multiple designer military viruses that are built to kill in the many hundreds of millions to billions of people globally.

It costs approximately US$1 million to kill one person with nuclear weapons-of-mass destruction but only approximately US$1 to kill one person with biological weapons-of-mass destruction. Bioweapons are truly the "poor man's nukes". The Iranians are known to have a biological weapons program and they, and their allies, certainly have the means to deliver biowar agents into the Israeli and European and North American homelands. Bioweapons do not have to be dispersed via missiles or bombs, they are perfect for non-traditional normally non-military delivery systems. Being very small (there are, for example, typically approximately 40 million bacterial cells in every gram of soil and massively more viruses in the same gram), they lend themselves to an enormous variety of non-detectable methodologies for delivery and use in war, both regionally and globally.

What is being missed here, with all the talk of Iran developing nuclear weapons or not (depending on one's viewpoint), is that Iran is already a state that possesses WMD. HELLO, ANY WAR WITH IRAN IS HIGHLY APT TO INVOLVE LARGE SCALE DEATHS THROUGHOUT THE WORLD DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE IRANIAN WMD THREAT. Hello again, this means that YOU...the person reading this...is apt to die from biowar in event of a war with Iran! We are in a MAD....mutually assured destruction....pre-war state with Iran, just as we are with Russia and and to a lessor extent with China when it comes to nuclear weapons. A famous line from the movie "Wargames" (referring to engaging in nuclear war and the odds of "winning" such a war) is "the only winning move is not to play". Sad to say, this does not seem to have any bearing on the apocalyptic strategy of the neocon push for war with Iran.

The nature of biowar is that it is a "gift that keeps on giving". Once released, advanced recombination DNA based viral bioweapons will continue to spread and kill and kill ....regardless if Iran (and its ally Syria) are but a sea of green radioactive glass devoid of all life. With advanced biowar agents, it is not the quantity that counts but the quality; humans themselves become the vectors and delivery systems of the bioweapons. It does not require large amounts of weapons running into the millions or billions of tons of high explosives; nor does it require ICBMs and cruise missiles and $100 million dollar warplanes to deliver the bioweapons. A very small group of human assets, prepositioned with small amounts of easily hidden biowar weapons (submicroscopic viruses), in the Middle East, Europe, Canada, and America can begin the process that will result in the deaths of hundreds of millions or even billions of human beings. When you get right down to it, does it matter if you die from some exotic bioengineered hemorrhagic fever or from radiation poisoning/nuclear blast .......dead is still dead.


To begin to understand the truly horrific nature of the biowar threat, one only has to look to history for some "mild" examples. The Black Death bubonic pandemic, believed caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is estimated to have killed between a third and two-thirds of Europe's population after it spread to Europe in 1347 from South-western/Central Asia.

Yersinia pestis, being a bacteria is massive when compared to a virus, and is easily treated with modern antibiotics. However, the Soviet Union's Biopreparat organization turned Black Death from a medieval plague into a 20th Century bioweapon. The Yersinia pestis bacteria was exposed to every then-known antibiotic, in a process that any advanced high school or early undergraduate college level biology class student could undertake, and the resulting antibiotic resistant Y. pestis was bred and loaded into a small number of Soviet ICBMs aimed at America. The resistant Y. pestis had also been exposed to various levels of radiation to "radiation harden" the bacteria. The intent was to hit American survivors of a nuclear war with a new and untreatable form of Black Death that itself could survive the effects of nuclear fallout.

As frighting as a totally antibiotic resistant Yersinia pestis bacteria is, it remains "child's play" compared to the more advanced recombination DNA technology used in most biowar programs. This typically involves the recombining of viral DNA into new virus, "designer virus". The Soviets, years ago, engineered a new virus that combined elements of Smallpox and Ebola. With the genetic engineering of viruses those doing the "designing" can engineer into the virus a wide number of different characteristics. For instance, an advanced hemorrhagic fever can be designed to be: airborne (capable of being transmitted via sneezing), with a very small amount of viral material required to infect a human host, with a incubation period of 14 days or longer, with most of the incubation period that is both highly contagious and at best looks like a mild version of the common cold, with the resulting hemorrhagic fever having a mortality of 90% or more.

The same technology can be used to create a large number of different viruses which can all be released on a target population at the same time, vastly complicating detection and containment and treatment programs. In fact the normal research and development process used in genetic engineering results in a large number of different new viruses.

Those nations not directly involved in a strike upon Iran, that is most of the rest of the world, will nevertheless face massive deaths within their nations...they will lose more of their citizens to the war, that we are about to unleash, than they lost in World War II and ALL THE OTHER WARS IN HISTORY COMBINED. Needless to say, this will have a profound effect on their actions towards those nations who have started the mess in the first place. The global military, political, economic, and medical chaos resulting from global biowar will make the use of nuclear weapons a likely outcome as America, the United Kingdom, France and other nations starting the war will be seen as out-of-control "mad dogs" who have unleashed World War III. The Book of Revelations speaks of one-third of the world dying, in the Final Battle, from plague ....biowar; and another one-third of the world dying from "wormwood"....which we now know to be nuclear war effects ...Chernobyl, which comes from the Ukrainian word "chornobyl", translates into wormwood (or its close relative mugwort). (Chernobyl is the site of a massive uncontrolled nuclear meltdown disaster in the Ukraine on the 26th of April 1986).

We are in a period of extreme danger to us all. Even more dangerous than the Cuban Missile Crisis of the 60s. Yet far too many people are so uneducated as to the real dangers from advanced Twenty-first Century biowar that they are totally blind to the profound risk to their own lives.

Stirling

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10 comments:

ryanshaunkelly said...

thanks for post - very true for many more than iran - let us not forget, long ago, ussr recomb dna weaponized vacine resistant smallpox...

joshstrike said...

Truly terrifying. It's a good thing that the bioweapons you're describing aren't actually available to Iran right now.

You're right -- if they had them, they probably would use them.

Weapons like that need to be kept out of the hands of madmen like the ayatollahs, who have absolutely no regard for civilization or human rights. The western world needs to do WHATEVER is necessary to prevent a government like that from acquiring the abilities you describe.

In other words, if we get 'em now, there's a fair chance they won't be able to pull off what you're suggesting...if we don't then it's inevitable; whether we go after them later or not.

joshstrike said...

Truly terrifying. It's a good thing that the bioweapons you're describing aren't actually available to Iran right now.

You're right -- if they had them, they probably would use them.

Weapons like that need to be kept out of the hands of madmen like the ayatollahs, who have absolutely no regard for civilization or human rights. The western world needs to do WHATEVER is necessary to prevent a government like that from acquiring the abilities you describe.

In other words, if we take them down now, there's a fair chance they won't be able to pull off what you're suggesting...if we don't then it's inevitable; whether we go after them later or not.

Lord Stirling said...

To Joshstrike:

I do believe that you are wrong. The bioweapons, which I have described, are available to Iran and to many other states and non-state organizations. They are the "poor man's nukes". While they require advanced biological technology, the investment required is but a tiny fraction of that required for nuclear weapons. There are many thousands of university trained people throughout the world with the education and access to the technology to produce such nightmare weapons. The last book of the Bible refers to one-third of the people on Earth dying from plague in the Final Battle.

Stirling

joshstrike said...

Y'know, if you're using the last book of the bible as a guide to what's going on in the world, you're pretty crazy. There's a lot of apocalyptic garbage in that old book, and it seems to me the really dangerous people are the ones who take things like that literally.
Like you guys, and the way the Iranians sit around waiting for the 12th Imam. Same bullsh*t, excuse my French. Can't you live your life and let other people live theirs without pressing this constant anticipation of an apocalypse all over the place? Don't you have a damn life or do you spend all your time fantasizing about 'the end'? Won't it be great? Jesus will be real proud of you for seeing things so clearly and loving your fellow man so well that you couldn't wait for him to be exterminated (sarcasm).

You can spot these lunatics because they're always barricading themselves behind something with a lot of weapons, waiting for 'the end', and coming up with even more theological hogwash to explain why 'the end' never seems to show up when they predict it will.

So there are dangerous weapons becoming available to dangerous people? Let's do something about it, rather than sitting around and waiting to die, huh?

Lord Stirling said...

I have worked on very advanced defense weapons systems. It is this background that I draw on. However, an intelligent person is not so quick to rule out the spiritual dimension.

Stirling

joshstrike said...

I'm just wondering ...
given the potential horrifying dangers listed above, what can be done to prevent a biowar with Iran or another state or terror organization... what course of action would you prescribe that could have some positive, hopeful outcomes?
And does the spiritual angle -- of Revelations, that is -- mean that you are opposed to an outcome in which the majority of the world's population will survive? Or do you believe the situation to be so hopeless that no positive action can be taken?

Lord Stirling said...

The beginning of the war with Iran will likely be the triggering device for a global strategic biowar attack on Israel, America, and the West. Avoiding a war in a MAD or near-MAD environment would be a first step. Then we have to come to grips with a Persian nation led by religious extremists. Events in the Middle East have empowered them....that is generally called "blowback". We have a real nightmare with too many crazy nations having too much in the way of strategic MWD. How to fix the problem is the trillion dollar question....we are so far into the problem, now, there is no easy answer. Sorry I don't have the answers, just the analysis that beginning a war with a nation like Iran, and hitting them very hard and not expecting that lot to hit back with everything they have is not realistic.

A few years ago, I gave a proposal to Israeli Prime Minister Sharon but he only took up part of my ideas for peace.

Stirling

joshstrike said...

Scary...and makes a lot of sense. I'm quite willing to learn from this and modify my views on the subject, but I'm not completely convinced that hitting first isn't the best option in any case. The central issues, and if you don't mind my probing further into this, seem to be -
(1) Is it an established fact that Iran or its proxies actually possess biological weapons like viruses (as opposed to botulism or anthrax) which could spread beyond the initial area of dispersal, causing waves of casualties beyond the target area?
(2) Assuming #1, would the regime in Teheran actually use these bugs indiscriminately, even if it were the case that by releasing them in Tel Aviv, a hundred million Muslims -- including the population of Iran -- might well be killed regionally along with the five million Jews in Israel?
And (3) If #1 and #2 are true, could a MAD doctrine actually be hoped to have any effect at all on restraining the Iranian regime from launching an attack with these weapons at some future point? Or is it safe to say that, given their capacity and their willingness to use these weapons, the only way to save the human race from extinction is to do precisely whatever the Islamic Revolutionary government dictates henceforth, lest they (crazier than we) blow us all away?

I appreciate your responses and didn't mean to disparage your view; to me it's still very much an open question as to what the correct path is to proceed (and conversely, what I should vociferously oppose) -- in fact, I've yet to hear a solution I can face. But I've heard a lot of defeatism from most of the older generation...an overwhelming sense of hopelessness. So is that it? We take orders from the Ayatollahs or we're doomed?

I guess when you get right down to it, personally, I'd sooner die than submit to Allah. I don't mean to oversimplify, but ultimately, doesn't this boil down to that?

Lord Stirling said...

Well in the case of your #1, any modern biowar program is light years ahead of simply using weaponized anthrax/etc., and you can count on the fact that their microbiologists and virologists have created some very nasty weapons. As to #2, what would America or any western nation do if its enemies were to attack it and destroy the military/economic/political systems throughout the nation. We would hit back with everything we have. That, by the way, has been our war doctrine for approximately 60 years.

Our recent history, that of NATO and the former Warsaw Pact, is an example of how to survive and handle a MAD environment and eventually work your way out of it.

The war party in Israel and America has facilitated the rise of a muslin (Iran/Syria/Lebanon) MAD. I truly believe that their strategy is a failure. The proof is that three years ago Israel was not in a MAD environment with Iran. Now Israel is, and in effect so is America and the West.

The purpose of the massive numbers of rockets and missiles aimed at Israel is to create a MAD to defend Iran/etc. I expect that there are multiple warhead options for most of the rockets/missiles and that these options include chemical, radiological, advanced conventional, and biological. Of course, bioweapons do not need such delivery methods.

Stirling